Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike

“It’s important to note that the United States is still historically in a very low interest-rate environment, and frankly, keeping rates close to zero for a prolonged period really isn’t healthy. In our view, this tightening cycle actually represents a normalizing of rates.” - Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

"Investors’ perceptions about the intentions of central banks, rather than economic fundamentals, are likely to remain the central driver of fixed income markets. Uncertainty created by factors such as geopolitics may only serve to convince policymakers to maintain a looser monetary stance than might otherwise be expected by economic conditions." - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Perspectives

How Technology Has Set Industries on a Journey of Opportunity

"As we look at the race for fully autonomous automobiles, the question of who will get there first—and more importantly who figures out how to commercialize and monetize this technology once they do get there—is still pretty wide open." - James Cross, Robert Rendler and Robert Stevenson, Franklin Equity Group and Aleck Beach, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Where Might Credit Risks Exist? Follow the Supply

“Companies—and entire Industries—have quickly disappeared. When there is tremendous change combined with heavy supply, there are going to be winners and losers. I think we are likely to see an increase in idiosyncratic risk in the marketplace going forward. I’d label this technological innovation disruption.” – Roger Bayston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Why Australia May Not Join the Rate-Tightening Party

“We don’t think the RBA is likely to raise rates in the next 12-18 months. There is a heavy load on the shoulders of Australian households. Australia’s economy is benefiting from global growth, particularly in China, but that growth would have to be quite significant to reduce household debt or improve wage growth. If these issues don’t improve in the next year or so, we believe the RBA’s next course of action could be a rate cut.” – Chris Siniakov and Andrew Canobi, Australia Fixed Income team

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Fixed Income

The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road

“The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve. Yet investors now seem to expect that the reverse process will have little impact, if any. We disagree.” - Michael Hasenstab, Templeton Global Macro

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Perspectives

Preparing for a Possible Post-LIBOR World

“We believe a change from LIBOR to an alternative benchmark would be significant. Global lenders use LIBOR to set interest rates for a variety of financial products, including interest-rate swaps, student loans, mortgages, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and floating-rate loans. A change would require amendments to contracts and credit agreements, underlying trillions of dollars in global assets.” – Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Mark Boyadjian and Reema Agarwal

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Fixed Income

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive

“The markets should take some comfort in Powell, as he is a current Fed governor and more or less represents the current state of affairs, business as usual. He has worked alongside Yellen since 2012, and they are philosophically alike (dovish bent).” Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Multi-Asset

A Selective Look at Corporate Credit

“In line with a positive assessment of economic fundamentals, we view credit conditions as favorable. Interest rates remain low, corporate balance sheets generally remain strong and debt-service costs appear manageable. Markets still appear receptive to debt offerings.” – Ed Perks, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group discusses the state of the US economy and monetary policy implications, the fallout from the German elections and impact of the Catalonia crisis in Spain.

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Fixed Income

Putting Geopolitical Tensions into Perspective

When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s John Beck discusses geopolitical tensions, the impact of social media and the broader macroeconomic issues impacting the global fixed income landscape.

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Alternatives

What’s Next For Europe as Merkel Is Re-elected

"We think the level of support for AfD does reflect a protest vote from people who have been unhappy with the direction things have been going in Germany. That could have an influence on Merkel’s approach as she looks past her election victory.” - David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group