Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: January

"Just as attempts to use historical precedents to predict the length and durability of the US economic cycle are undermined by the idiosyncratic nature of its recovery since the global financial crisis, much the same argument can be made about the wider global economy.” - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group®

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Equity

Keeping One’s Options Open: The Case for Convertible Securities

When the outlook is uncertain, it can be good to keep one’s options open. Alan Muschott, vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Equity Group, says convertible securities’ ability to adapt to myriad market conditions makes them an attractive vehicle as we head into the uncertainties of the year ahead. He outlines why companies issue convertible securities—and why many investors find them an attractive addition to their portfolios.

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Fixed Income

Will US Tax Reform Alter the Muni Landscape?

With a new US tax law now upon us, many investors are questioning what the potential impacts may be on their portfolios—and on their potential investment selections going forward. Rafael Costas and Sheila Amoroso, co-directors of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Municipal Bond Department, address the major areas of potential impact the new legislation could have on muni bonds, and offer their thoughts around each of these areas.

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Multi-Asset

The Year Ahead: Will the US and Global Expansion Continue in 2018?

January is a month of resolutions and predictions, and perhaps more often than not, both tend to be abandoned come spring. While we don’t have a magic crystal ball to predict where the markets may be headed next, we do have a team of respected professionals who recently assembled to discuss whether they think last year’s economic momentum could continue—and where they see potential threats on the horizon.

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Perspectives

Global Investment Outlook 2018: Reflections on Growing Economies and Fading Stimulus

As markets shift away from the recovery era of monetary accommodation amid synchronized global growth, some investors may be wondering where potential opportunities can be found. We present a summary outlook for the year ahead from Franklin Templeton’s global macro, fixed income, equity and multi-asset investment teams.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: December

“The pattern of a strong cyclical upturn in the global economy combined with subdued inflation looks set to continue for some time, in our view. Nevertheless, we believe increasing demand and a diminishing pool of labor are likely to create meaningful pricing pressures at some point.” - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike

“It’s important to note that the United States is still historically in a very low interest-rate environment, and frankly, keeping rates close to zero for a prolonged period really isn’t healthy. In our view, this tightening cycle actually represents a normalizing of rates.” - Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

"Investors’ perceptions about the intentions of central banks, rather than economic fundamentals, are likely to remain the central driver of fixed income markets. Uncertainty created by factors such as geopolitics may only serve to convince policymakers to maintain a looser monetary stance than might otherwise be expected by economic conditions." - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Perspectives

How Technology Has Set Industries on a Journey of Opportunity

"As we look at the race for fully autonomous automobiles, the question of who will get there first—and more importantly who figures out how to commercialize and monetize this technology once they do get there—is still pretty wide open." - James Cross, Robert Rendler and Robert Stevenson, Franklin Equity Group and Aleck Beach, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Where Might Credit Risks Exist? Follow the Supply

“Companies—and entire Industries—have quickly disappeared. When there is tremendous change combined with heavy supply, there are going to be winners and losers. I think we are likely to see an increase in idiosyncratic risk in the marketplace going forward. I’d label this technological innovation disruption.” – Roger Bayston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Why Australia May Not Join the Rate-Tightening Party

“We don’t think the RBA is likely to raise rates in the next 12-18 months. There is a heavy load on the shoulders of Australian households. Australia’s economy is benefiting from global growth, particularly in China, but that growth would have to be quite significant to reduce household debt or improve wage growth. If these issues don’t improve in the next year or so, we believe the RBA’s next course of action could be a rate cut.” – Chris Siniakov and Andrew Canobi, Australia Fixed Income team

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Fixed Income

The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road

“The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve. Yet investors now seem to expect that the reverse process will have little impact, if any. We disagree.” - Michael Hasenstab, Templeton Global Macro