Beyond Bulls & Bears

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check
Fixed Income

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the second time this year, but some observers were disappointed the Fed didn’t more strongly signal future easing moves. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts on why the central bank needed to rein in expectations a bit.

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?
Fixed Income

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero. She argues deflation risks are overblown and looser monetary policy will lead to increased financial market distortions.

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination
Fixed Income

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination

Christine Lagarde may have emerged as a surprise candidate to take the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB), but David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, sees it as a positive choice. Here he explains why both her experience, and lack of it, could prove positive if she does secure the job. And he shares his conviction that, whoever is in charge, the ECB is likely to remain steadfast on its easing path.

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk
Perspectives

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk

Equity markets continued to march higher in the first half of 2019, despite trade uncertainties and recessionary fears. An abrupt change to a more dovish stance among central bankers has recently provided fresh tinder to the equity fire. But does a looser policy stance signal there are cracks in the global economy’s foundation? Our senior investment leaders share their views on investing in uncertain times and how their outlooks have changed from earlier this year. They weigh in on market divergence, whether there is simply too much focus on the US Federal Reserve, where they see pockets of opportunity and how they are looking to play defense.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamors for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamors for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it emphasized its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

Is the US Yield Curve Signaling a US Recession?
Fixed Income

Is the US Yield Curve Signaling a US Recession?

Although one part of the US yield curve has inverted this year, investment leaders from Franklin Templeton explain why they aren’t concerned about a US recession—at least not yet.

PODCAST: US Housing Market: Are There Cracks in the Foundation?
Fixed Income

PODCAST: US Housing Market: Are There Cracks in the Foundation?

The US housing market is starting to cool off a bit, but the big question is whether there are cracks in its foundation. Paul Varunok, head of Securitized Assets with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, shares his view on our latest Talking Markets podcast. He discusses the state of the US housing market today and why he doesn’t see a repeat of the housing crisis that hit the US market a decade ago. He also shares some thoughts on where he’s finding opportunities as an investor in the space.

A Dovish Fed Rate Hike
Fixed Income

A Dovish Fed Rate Hike

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time this year, but with critics starting to question the central bank’s actions, will it take a tightening pause in 2019? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Michael Materasso weighs in.

Finding Value among Stretched US Valuations, Market Dislocations
Equity

Finding Value among Stretched US Valuations, Market Dislocations

“Of all the different macroeconomic and political factors that have been on investors’ minds over the last few months, we think interest rates are likely to be the most important. As we continue to see central banks reduce quantitative easing and move toward interest-rate normalization in the major regions of the world, we are going to continue to focus on the dislocations that this may cause for currencies, equity markets and valuations.” - Templeton Global Equity Group

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?
Fixed Income

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Fed Full Steam Ahead
Fixed Income

Fed Full Steam Ahead

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its benchmark short-term interest rate for the third time this year, which was no surprise to most market participants. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the Fed’s “normalization” path in light of what he sees as an overall positive US economic backdrop.

ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
Fixed Income

ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves

David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, gives his take on the ECB meeting and explains why he’s still not expecting a eurozone interest-rate hike before 2020.