Beyond Bulls & Bears

Is the US Yield Curve Signaling a US Recession?
Fixed Income

Is the US Yield Curve Signaling a US Recession?

Although one part of the US yield curve has inverted this year, investment leaders from Franklin Templeton explain why they aren’t concerned about a US recession—at least not yet.

Distortion, Divergence and Diversification: 2019 Global Investment Outlook
Perspectives

Distortion, Divergence and Diversification: 2019 Global Investment Outlook

Volatility has plagued equity markets globally in 2018—most notably emerging markets and US equity markets. As the US economic expansion officially crossed the nine-year mark in 2018, many investors started to wonder when the cycle would change—and what the catalyst might be. Our senior investment leaders see plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the year ahead, but recognize investment opportunities may be more divergent, with some previously overlooked countries or asset classes potentially taking the spotlight.

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?
Fixed Income

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Then and Now: Mortgage-Backed Securities Post-Financial Crisis
Fixed Income

Then and Now: Mortgage-Backed Securities Post-Financial Crisis

“As the Fed stops buying, we expect that will leave a greater supply of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for the market to absorb. Now, the question is, who’s going to be the marginal buyer of MBS?” – Paul Varunok, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group