Beyond Bulls & Bears


Quick Thoughts: Commodities, Wages and Supply Chains—How Geopolitics Are Reshaping the Global Economy

The war in Ukraine is shifting the conversation on what a post-COVID-19 world will look like. Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions Head of Research Gene Podkaminer, Brandywine Global’s Director of Global Macro Research Francis Scotland, and Templeton Global Macro’s Chief Investment Officer Dr. Michael Hasenstab join Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute Stephen Dover for a discussion on the current investment landscape.

Listen to our latest “Talking Markets” podcast for the conversation. 

Here are some key thoughts:

  • Greater regionalization of trade flows will likely result in a more multi-polar world that is inherently less stable, creating more volatility. This “whiplash” environment looks like cycles of very short, intense periods of growth and inflation.
  • Globally, central bank policy decisions will vary dramatically based on country-specific economic dynamics. Central banks in the United States and Europe have been behind Asia and Latin America in the pace of monetary tightening. Looking at the United States specifically, the Federal Reserve’s response has been slow and reactionary.
  • Commodity inflation in food and energy will likely continue over the near term and will be driven largely by supply issues. More persistent inflation could be influenced by the current combination of shortages in the labor and housing markets. Historically, inflation has tended to be more persistent when driven by shortages in the labor market. 
  • Global economic recovery is stalling after strong growth in 2021. Since March 2021, rising prices have eroded purchasing power and durable goods orders have remained flat over the past six months. These factors have led to a slow “real growth” (gross domestic product growth minus inflation) environment, creating an increased risk of recession.
  • With volatility across both bond and stock markets, selectivity becomes key in finding truly uncorrelated assets. Fixed income assets in Asia and Latin America look attractive to us as these regions generally benefit from higher commodity prices. We believe equity portfolios should favor regions primed to effectively manage inflation or have structural tailwinds to growth.

What Are the Risks?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in developing markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with their relatively small size and lesser liquidity.

Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not guarantee profit nor protect against risk of loss.

Important Legal Information 

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

Issued in the U.S. by Franklin Distributors, LLC, One Franklin Parkway, San Mateo, California 94403-1906, (800) DIAL BEN/342-5236, – Franklin Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, is the principal distributor of Franklin Templeton U.S. registered products, which are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed and are available only in jurisdictions where an offer or solicitation of such products is permitted under applicable laws and regulation.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Get Content Alerts in My Inbox

Receive email alerts when a new blog is posted.