Beyond Bulls & Bears

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the January inflation print confirms that the “last mile” of disinflation may prove to be a lot harder than markets expect, and investors should brace for more volatility and a possible move of 10-year Treasury yields back in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the recent acceleration in productivity growth might prove durable, leading to higher potential returns on real investment and a higher equilibrium interest rate.

On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed

The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

On My Mind: Miracle on 20th Street
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Miracle on 20th Street

Markets cheered a “dovish” December Federal Reserve meeting, seen as an early gift to investors. But has the battle against inflation been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai weighs in.

On My Mind: The Fed and markets—Same as it ever was
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed and markets—Same as it ever was

A dovish nudge in the Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) November press conference pushed markets to again price a significant monetary easing as early as mid-2024. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this market reaction as an excess of exuberance that sets the stage for more volatility. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.

The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

On My Mind: The structural shift that wasn’t
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The structural shift that wasn’t

Markets seem to be coming around to our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s view that the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, but now runaway fiscal deficits pose further upside risk to yields in the long term, she warns. She shares her latest insights on the fiscal and monetary outlook and the implications for investors.

On My Mind: Debt ceiling to markets—I’ll be back!
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Debt ceiling to markets—I’ll be back!

The debt ceiling crisis has been averted—but this short-term relief might come at the cost of greater future peril. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the debt-ceiling resolution and delves into the potential longer-term risks that rising public debt poses to financial markets.

On My Mind: The Fed fights inflation, the markets fight the Fed
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed fights inflation, the markets fight the Fed

Markets want to believe policy interest rates will soon fall—but inflation and growth data tell a very different story, argues Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.

On My Mind: Don’t bank on it
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Don’t bank on it

Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing

Markets think the war against inflation has been won—and the Fed seems to believe it too—but has it? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the latest data in light of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and examines whether a “painless landing” is possible.

On My Mind: Transitory tightening?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Transitory tightening?

Does the latest US data confirm the battle against inflation has already been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says markets are overly optimistic.