Beyond Bulls & Bears

On my mind: The Fed capitulates
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed capitulates

The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth. It also de facto abandoned forward guidance. It was a reminder that economic data eventually rule the day, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She argues this is a welcome but only partial move to a more realistic stance, and discusses why further hawkish surprises likely lie ahead.

On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun
Fixed Income

On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.

Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?

Are the reserve banks too slow in tackling inflation? Will inflation level off by itself? Will rising rates cause a recession? Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, sat down with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai and Western Asset Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst John Bellows to discuss the investment landscape considering today’s geopolitical and economic challenges.

On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill

The Fed struck a hawkish tone at its latest meeting, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes it still underestimates how far rates will likely need to rise—and so do the markets. She discusses what it will take to get inflation back under control, and how fixed income investors can position for the volatile rising-rate environment ahead.

On My Mind: The US Dollar and the Retreat from Globalization
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The US Dollar and the Retreat from Globalization

With the war taking a tragic toll in Ukraine and triggering a major shift in the geopolitical and economic order, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the implications for the US dollar’s status as dominant reserve currency, and for the pace of the energy transition.

The Inflationary Shock of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Fixed Income

The Inflationary Shock of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ramifications for global inflation and growth, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. The team examines the dynamics underlying energy and certain agricultural commodities to explore the inflation implications.

On My Mind: The Long and Winding Road…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Long and Winding Road…

With inflation running at multi-decade highs, major central banks get ready to tighten monetary policy. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai argues they are well behind the curve—and why she thinks markets still underestimate the long, volatile adjustment period that lies ahead.

Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate

Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue. Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently led a lively debate on the topic with Western Asset’s John Bellows and Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Sonal Desai.

On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want

The Fed seems to have been caught by surprise by its own policy and says this is not the inflation it was looking for. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, shares her thoughts on why inflation should not have come as a surprise and why investors need to brace for higher volatility as the Fed adjusts its policy stance.

On My Mind: To Work, or Not to Work…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: To Work, or Not to Work…

Of all recent economic trends, sluggish employment growth is perhaps the most important for investors to watch, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She outlines why the labor market response will likely remain lackluster for some time, and discusses the short- and medium-term market implications.

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy

This year’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole opens the six months that will likely define the legacy of the Powell Fed’s first term. The robust recovery, high inflation and record asset prices call for the Fed to wind down an extraordinary monetary easing that is also exacerbating economic inequality. But leaving QE isn’t easy, as financial markets have become overly dependent on Fed support. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the Fed’s challenges and what they mean for investors.

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?

Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008. Financial markets seem to be unfazed, but businesses and consumers appear considerably less sanguine. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why inflation may be less “transitory” than many expect.