Beyond Bulls & Bears

Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate

Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue. Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently led a lively debate on the topic with Western Asset’s John Bellows and Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Sonal Desai.

On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want

The Fed seems to have been caught by surprise by its own policy and says this is not the inflation it was looking for. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, shares her thoughts on why inflation should not have come as a surprise and why investors need to brace for higher volatility as the Fed adjusts its policy stance.

On My Mind: To Work, or Not to Work…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: To Work, or Not to Work…

Of all recent economic trends, sluggish employment growth is perhaps the most important for investors to watch, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She outlines why the labor market response will likely remain lackluster for some time, and discusses the short- and medium-term market implications.

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy

This year’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole opens the six months that will likely define the legacy of the Powell Fed’s first term. The robust recovery, high inflation and record asset prices call for the Fed to wind down an extraordinary monetary easing that is also exacerbating economic inequality. But leaving QE isn’t easy, as financial markets have become overly dependent on Fed support. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the Fed’s challenges and what they mean for investors.

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?

Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008. Financial markets seem to be unfazed, but businesses and consumers appear considerably less sanguine. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why inflation may be less “transitory” than many expect.

On My Mind: Something Has to Give
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Something Has to Give

There are differing opinions for why US Treasury yields have suddenly dropped. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai outlines three possible scenarios and the logical implications of each; in the current constellation of asset prices, she argues, something does not add up.

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?

The Fed now acknowledges inflation risks are to the upside. With high uncertainty on the inflation and employment outlook, adjusting its exceptionally loose monetary stance at the right time and pace become a very difficult high-wire act. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she discusses the Fed’s challenge, and where she is finding opportunities in the market.

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries
Fixed Income

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries

While a global recovery has now become the base case for financial markets, differences between countries and regions on the path toward normalcy are significant and seem set to widen. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she evaluates the differences in policy decisions, both on the fiscal front as well as in vaccination campaigns, and how the resulting differing paths will shape the map of investment opportunities.

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew

Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has been ahead of the curve in flagging the risks of inflation and rising rates that have now entered the mainstream debate. In this article, she assesses the coming together of an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, a very accommodative US Federal Reserve, and an economy poised to rebound as vaccination campaigns pave the way for reopening businesses. She cautions that central bankers might be underestimating how difficult it will be to deal with the “devil they knew”—inflation—especially if inflation expectations become unmoored; and, she highlights the key fixed income investment implications.

On My Mind: Investment Strategies for a Booster-Shot Recovery
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Investment Strategies for a Booster-Shot Recovery

Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her investment views and strategies for the post-pandemic recovery. She explains why inflation looks likely to gain steam, and how the balance of fundamentals and valuations become especially crucial today when looking for attractive returns in fixed income. The Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study supports her bullish view for the global economy, and highlights how policymakers need to intensify their efforts to boost vaccine acceptance.

On My Mind: Knowledge Drives Confidence, Confidence Drives Growth
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Knowledge Drives Confidence, Confidence Drives Growth

The Franklin Templeton–Gallup Economics of Recovery Study has heralded some interesting results in regard to the attitudes and behavior of Americans in response to the ongoing pandemic—and what developments could change both. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts on the latest wave of survey findings, including the value of trusted advice in navigating financial and investment concerns.

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: How Shifting Attitudes Impact Recovery
Perspectives

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: How Shifting Attitudes Impact Recovery

In our latest Election Pulse, our Head of Equities Stephen Dover is joined by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai and Gallup's Jonathan Rothwell to discuss survey findings on COVID-19 and its impact on the consumer. They discuss attitudes about vaccines, mask-wearing, and where they think the research may lead them post-election.