Beyond Bulls & Bears

Fixed Income

Tumultuous times: Understanding the macroeconomic landscape

Fixed income sectors that eliminate credit risk seem to be pricing in a recession while sectors willing to take credit risk seem to be much more optimistic. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai and Portfolio Manager Rick Klein tell us what they think these diverging views imply.

We are pleased to introduce the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Fifteen, a video series designed to cover relevant market topics in approximately 15 minutes. In this inaugural segment, join FTFI’s Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai and Portfolio Manager Rick Klein as they discuss the current macroeconomic environment and share their views on interest rates, the banking sector turmoil, the US debt ceiling and more.

A few of the topics covered include:

  1. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its May meeting, as had been expected. The accompanying statement, however, indicated that the Fed would now make policy decisions on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis going forward and signaled that it would be willing to pause its hiking cycle if that was deemed appropriate. Nevertheless, it seems the market is not pricing in a pause, but rather multiple rate cuts by the end of 2023. So who is correct, the Fed or the market?
  2. We’re seeing a dislocation in the market; fixed income sectors that eliminate credit risk seem to be pricing in a recession, while those willing to take credit risk seem to be much more optimistic. Sonal and Rick tell us what they think these diverging views imply and how they are consequently positioning portfolios. Are current spreads across fixed income assets appropriately priced taking into account the overall economic environment and growth outlook?
  3. We have witnessed a few regional lenders fail this year and the entire sector has been under increasing pressure, driving a lot of investor concerns. Sonal and Rick share their outlook for the banking sector and credit availability, as well as what impact they believe this could have on the macroeconomic environment and fixed income markets specifically. Is this the start of a credit crunch or banking crisis?
  4. As we have seen several times now over the past decade, the United States is facing another debt ceiling standoff with a potential default as soon as the end of May. Sonal and Rick tell us if they are concerned about a historic default on US debt. How could this impact fixed income markets?

To listen to the entire conversation as well as hear a few surprise insights, click the link to watch the inaugural FTFI Fifteen.



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